🚨 Alert #4836 Wed Sep-16 17:50:48
Amazon Web Services acknowledged permanent customer data loss in Bahrain and UAE regions following Iranian drone strikes that caused catastrophic infrastructure damage.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short AMZN (other: Amazon Web Services acknowledged permanent customer data loss in Bahrain and UAE regions following Iranian drone strikes that caused catastrophic infrastructure damage.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 short AMZN exiting 2026-09-16] → close -0.77% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long MSFT (other: Amazon Web Services acknowledged permanent customer data loss in Bahrain and UAE regions following Iranian drone strikes that caused catastrophic infrastructure damage.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted long, netted, outranked by S3 short MSFT mat 95 (new mat 85)] → close -0.69% |
| S4 | AMZN | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short AMZN at close, exit next close (other: Amazon Web Services acknowledged permanent customer data loss in Bahrain and UAE regions following Iranian drone strikes that caused catastrophic infrastructure damage.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | AMZN | ▼ short | 4 | 245.96 | 251.46 | -22.00 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN S4 | +0.64% | -2.72% | Signal: wrong. The short predicted downward drift, but AMZN rose ~2.2% from entry to exit — the market went against the position, bad-news rationale notwithstanding. Timing: partly late. Entry at 245.96 was already ~1% below the prior close of 248.42, so a meaningful chunk of any news-driven decline had occurred before the fill; the short was chasing a move that then reversed. Exit: near worst-case. The realized loss (-22.00, roughly -2.2%) sits close to the worst unrealized of -2.72%, while a small +0.64% gain was briefly available — the mechanical next-close exit captured almost none of it. The dominant factor is signal failure: the predicted direction was simply wrong, and timing/exit only compounded it modestly. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.