verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSM (earnings: TSMC reported a 53.3% year-over-year revenue increase for August 2026, driven by strong demand for advanced AI and high-performance computing chips.)
overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: TSMC reported a 53.3% year-over-year revenue increase for August 2026, driven by strong demand for advanced AI and high-performance computing chips.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 long (decision 18960) for S4 TSM exiting 2026-09-16]
Signal was the failure. The bullish call never materialized — the best unrealized gain while open was a negligible +0.01%, meaning there was essentially no upward move to capture at any point. Timing is suggestive but not conclusive: the stock was already down -0.90% from prior close at decision time, consistent with the earnings news being priced in, but this data can't confirm when the news broke relative to that move. The exit was fine — the -0.11% realized loss sits between the +0.01% best and -0.49% worst unrealized, so execution left almost nothing on the table; the trade lost because the predicted direction was simply wrong over the holding period.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
