verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long GOOGL (product: Alphabet's Waymo announced the expansion of its autonomous robotaxi service to Las Vegas and a planned unsupervised launch in Tokyo for 2027.)
overnight drift: long GOOGL at close, exit next close (product: Alphabet's Waymo announced the expansion of its autonomous robotaxi service to Las Vegas and a planned unsupervised launch in Tokyo for 2027.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 short (decision 18940) for S4 GOOGL exiting 2026-09-16]
Signal was wrong — that's the dominant factor. The bullish thesis never materialized: the trade's best unrealized gain was a negligible +0.02%, so there was essentially no favorable move to capture at any point while open. On timing, the stock was already down -0.92% from prior close at entry, but the data here can't settle whether the Waymo news was already priced in before entry — only that no upward move followed. The exit itself was reasonable given what was available: -0.60% realized versus a worst of -1.27%, so the exit cut roughly half the maximum drawdown, but no exit could have salvaged a trade with virtually zero upside.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
