Sun Oct-18 15:16:27
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #4623 Mon Sep-14 21:20:27
SMCI Stock Faces Crucial Test After Earnings Reversal
Super Micro Computer shares fell over 7% despite beating EPS estimates and raising guidance, as revenue missed expectations and broader semiconductor weakness weighed on the stock.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary SMCI | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -8.38% | -0.85% | 36.74 | 38.16 | |
| MU | · unclear | PRICED | -5.25% | -0.36% | 904.94 | 931.94 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | PRICED | -4.70% | +0.11% | 344.15 | 351.15 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -4.40% | -0.44% | 483.56 | 498.32 | |
| peer NVDA | · unclear | PRICED | -3.26% | -0.23% | 209.25 | 213.36 | |
| TSM | · unclear | PRICED | -3.26% | -0.16% | 416.10 | 424.45 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | SMCI | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -8.38% · Δ 30m -0.85% · px 36.74 (prev 40.10) → close +0.23% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close +0.02% |
| S4 | SMCI | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -8.38% · Δ 30m -0.85% · px 36.74 (prev 40.10) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.