verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long MU (earnings: Micron Technology reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $41.46 billion with an 84.9% gross margin and raised guidance amid persistent memory supply shortages.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long MU exiting 2026-09-11] → close +0.01%
overnight drift: long MU at close, exit next close (earnings: Micron Technology reported fiscal Q3 2026 revenue of $41.46 billion with an 84.9% gross margin and raised guidance amid persistent memory supply shortages.)
Signal (dominant factor): The predicted post-earnings upward drift never materialized — the position never got better than -0.01% unrealized, so the direction call was simply wrong. Timing: Entry wasn't late; the stock was roughly flat versus prior close (-0.07%) at decision time, so the adverse move happened after entry, not before. Exit: The -5.18% realized loss sits between the best (-0.01%) and worst (-7.49%) unrealized — the mechanical next-close exit avoided the trough but there was nothing positive available to capture. Note: the data here can't confirm whether the earnings news was already priced in before the prior close, only that no further upside occurred during the holding period.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
