🚨 Alert #4461 Fri Sep-11 13:40:34
Google and Amazon have committed to using Intel's EMIB packaging technology for their inference chips, diverging from Nvidia's reliance on TSMC's CoWoS for training processors.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long GOOGL (partnership: Google and Amazon have committed to using Intel's EMIB packaging technology for their inference chips, diverging from Nvidia's reliance on TSMC's CoWoS for training processors.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | TSM | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close +0.32% |
| S4 | GOOGL | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long GOOGL at close, exit next close (partnership: Google and Amazon have committed to using Intel's EMIB packaging technology for their inference chips, diverging from Nvidia's reliance on TSMC's CoWoS for training processors.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ▲ long | 2 | 337.02 | 338.62 | +3.20 | closed |
| S4 | GOOGL | ▲ long | 2 | 338.74 | 348.99 | +20.50 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL S1 | +1.71% | +0.10% | Signal: Right — GOOGL rose after entry and never went underwater (worst unrealized +0.10%). Whether the EMIB partnership news actually drove the move can't be determined from this data. Timing: Partially late — the decision context showed +0.51% since prev close, but the fill at 337.02 was +1.33% above prev close (332.60), so a meaningful chunk of the move occurred between signal and fill. Exit (dominant factor): The exit captured +0.47% of a +1.71% best unrealized — roughly a quarter of what was available. The trade was directionally correct and never at risk, but the exit left most of the move on the table. |
| GOOGL S4 | +3.28% | -1.18% | Signal: Right — the long call worked; GOOGL rose ~3.0% from entry to exit. Timing: Partially eroded. At decision time the stock was only +0.51% off the prior close, but the fill at 338.74 was ~1.85% above it, meaning roughly a third of the eventual gain occurred between decision and fill; the data here doesn't say whether that was a delayed fill or an intraday run-up, so the cause is unsettled. Exit: Near-optimal — the +3.03% realized captured almost all of the +3.28% best unrealized, with only shallow adverse excursion (-1.18%). Dominant factor: a correct signal executed with a clean exit; the only leakage was pre-fill drift, not the thesis or the close-to-close exit rule. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.