kingfisher — alert #4339

🚨 Alert #4339 Wed Sep-09 18:50:15

Palantir Changed The Number It Wants You To Judge It By

trefis.com · Wed Sep-09 18:33:45 published · Wed Sep-09 18:50:15 alerted · alerted 16m after publish · read at www.trefis.com ↗ · earnings · mat 65

Palantir has replaced its total customer count metric with a focus on U.S. commercial bookings, which surged 153% year-over-year to $2.132 billion in Q2 2026.

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi	intraday px
primary PLTR	▲ bullish	FRESH	+0.25%	-0.23%	169.06	171.69

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	PLTR	● enter	▲ long	verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long PLTR (earnings: Palantir has replaced its total customer count metric with a focus on U.S. commercial bookings, which surged 153% year-over-year to $2.132 billion in Q2 2026.)
S2	-	○ skip	—	no counterparty in universe
S3	-	○ skip	—	no peer in universe
S4	PLTR	○ skip	—	overnight drift: long PLTR at close, exit next close (earnings: Palantir has replaced its total customer count metric with a focus on U.S. commercial bookings, which surged 153% year-over-year to $2.132 billion in Q2 2026.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 long (decision 17376) for S4 PLTR exiting 2026-09-10]

📈 Trades

strategy	ticker	side	qty	entry	exit	P&L $	status
S1	PLTR	▲ long	5	170.73	169.77	-4.80	closed

Retrospectives

ticker	mfe	mae	reflection
PLTR S1	+0.03%	-0.73%	Signal: Wrong — the bullish call never materialized; the stock topped out at +0.03% unrealized and drifted down the whole hold. Timing: Not the issue — entry was only ~0.25% above prev close, so the move hadn't already run before the fill (though whether the market had priced in the earnings news earlier isn't determinable from this data). Exit: Roughly fair given what was available — with a best of +0.03%, there was no profit to capture; the -0.56% exit sat near but above the -0.73% worst. Dominant factor: bad signal. The predicted bullish direction simply didn't happen over the holding window.

ticker

mfe

mae

reflection

PLTR S1

+0.03%

-0.73%

Signal: Wrong — the bullish call never materialized; the stock topped out at +0.03% unrealized and drifted down the whole hold. Timing: Not the issue — entry was only ~0.25% above prev close, so the move hadn't already run before the fill (though whether the market had priced in the earnings news earlier isn't determinable from this data). Exit: Roughly fair given what was available — with a best of +0.03%, there was no profit to capture; the -0.56% exit sat near but above the -0.73% worst.

Dominant factor: bad signal. The predicted bullish direction simply didn't happen over the holding window.

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.