🚨 Alert #4054 Fri Sep-04 13:11:01
Google avoided a court-ordered breakup of its ad tech business for the second time while rolling out AI search features and addressing various platform bugs.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long GOOGL (regulatory: Google avoided a court-ordered breakup of its ad tech business for the second time while rolling out AI search features and addressing various platform bugs.) |
| S2 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for MSFT → close -1.43% |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long GOOGL at close, exit next close (regulatory: Google avoided a court-ordered breakup of its ad tech business for the second time while rolling out AI search features and addressing various platform bugs.) [skipped at close: s4_alignment — wanted long, GOOGL -1.25% vs prev close 342.4800109863281 (mark 338.19000244140625), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ▲ long | 2 | 342.70 | 338.16 | -9.08 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL S1 | -0.23% | -1.61% | Signal (dominant factor): The bullish call was simply wrong — the position was never meaningfully positive (best unrealized only -0.23%), so the predicted direction failed outright rather than being a stale entry; the +0.10%/-0.20% pre-entry context shows no significant move had already occurred. Exit: The exit at -1.32% sits near the worst unrealized (-1.61%), but with a best of -0.23% there was essentially nothing to capture — exit quality is a minor footnote given the signal failure. Timing: Not an issue here; the entry wasn't late to a move, the move just never came. Whether the regulatory news was already priced in before the prior close can't be determined from this data. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.