🚨 Alert #3932 Thu Sep-03 13:05:07
Nvidia reported fiscal second-quarter earnings with revenue of $96.2 billion and EPS of $2.22, beating estimates, and projected 70% revenue growth for fiscal year 2028.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.40% | -0.37% | 223.46 | 230.14 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | PRICED | -3.62% | -0.65% | 340.52 | 358.96 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.44% | -0.40% | 165.14 | 169.97 | |
| peer AMD | · unclear | FRESH | -0.82% | -0.24% | 444.32 | 459.53 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.80% | -0.11% | 927.46 | 959.36 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | FRESH | -0.70% | -0.15% | 408.61 | 417.19 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long NVDA (earnings: Nvidia reported fiscal second-quarter earnings with revenue of $96.2 billion and EPS of $2.22, beating estimates, and projected 70% revenue growth for fiscal year 2028.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already queued S3 long NVDA exiting 2026-09-03] → close +2.27% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD → close +0.41% |
| S4 | NVDA | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long NVDA at close, exit next close (earnings: Nvidia reported fiscal second-quarter earnings with revenue of $96.2 billion and EPS of $2.22, beating estimates, and projected 70% revenue growth for fiscal year 2028.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | NVDA | ▲ long | 4 | 228.58 | 230.77 | +8.76 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S4 | +2.68% | -0.08% | Signal: Right — the long call worked; price rose ~0.96% from entry and the worst unrealized was essentially zero (-0.08%). Timing: Questionable but not fully settled by the data: decision-time context showed NVDA at -0.40% vs prev close (224.41), yet the fill was 228.58 — ~1.9% above prev close — meaning a substantial gap-up occurred between decision and fill, so part of the earnings move was already consumed at entry. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit captured +$8.76 (~+0.96%) of a +2.68% peak unrealized — roughly a third of what was available. The dominant factor is the entry fill absorbing a large gap the rationale's edge was meant to capture; the exit then gave back most of the remaining intraday high, but that's inherent to the fixed close-to-close mechanics rather than a directional miss. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.