verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AAPL (partnership: Apple has become the new official U.S. broadcaster for Formula 1, integrating F1 TV into its Apple TV subscription service.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S3 short AAPL decision 15475]
overnight drift: long AAPL at close, exit next close (partnership: Apple has become the new official U.S. broadcaster for Formula 1, integrating F1 TV into its Apple TV subscription service.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 75 long (decision 15516) for S4 AAPL exiting 2026-09-03]
Signal: Wrong over the holding period — the trade never showed a positive tick (best unrealized was -0.27%), so the bullish call didn't pay at any point while open. Timing: The entry came after some run-up (fill 327.83 vs. prev close 325.13, ~+0.8%), consistent with chasing a stale news pop, though the data can't confirm how much of the F1 news was already priced in. Exit: The early close (netted against an opposing short signal, not a price decision) actually salvaged the trade — the -0.39% realized loss sits well above the -1.29% worst unrealized. Dominant factor: bad signal — the direction simply never materialized while the position was open.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
