🚨 Alert #3801 Tue Sep-01 19:00:29
OpenAI released benchmarks for its co-developed Jalapeño AI chip with Broadcom, claiming superior efficiency and lower latency compared to Nvidia's GB200 and GB300 systems.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AVGO | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AVGO (product: OpenAI released benchmarks for its co-developed Jalapeño AI chip with Broadcom, claiming superior efficiency and lower latency compared to Nvidia's GB200 and GB300 systems.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD → close +0.84% |
| S4 | AVGO | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long AVGO at close, exit next close (product: OpenAI released benchmarks for its co-developed Jalapeño AI chip with Broadcom, claiming superior efficiency and lower latency compared to Nvidia's GB200 and GB300 systems.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AVGO | ▲ long | 2 | 369.05 | 369.49 | +0.88 | closed |
| S4 | AVGO | ▲ long | 2 | 369.59 | 366.90 | -5.38 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO S1 | +0.32% | -0.33% | Signal: Directionally right but barely — the stock moved only +0.12% from entry, and the range while open (+0.32%/-0.33%) was symmetric noise, so the "superior chip benchmarks" thesis produced no discernible bullish move in this window. Timing: Not a chasing problem — price was slightly down (-0.36% since prior close) at decision time, so the move hadn't already happened by entry. Exit: Captured +0.12% of a +0.32% best case, which is acceptable given how little was available. The dominant factor is signal weakness: the catalyst simply didn't move the stock during the holding period, and this data can't settle whether the move came later or never — only that it wasn't there while the trade was open. |
| AVGO S4 | +0.54% | -1.19% | Signal: Wrong — the long thesis on the positive chip-benchmark news didn't materialize; AVGO fell -0.73% from entry to exit. Timing: The move had not already happened by entry (price was only -0.36% from prior close, slightly down), so this wasn't a case of chasing a spent move — the predicted drift simply never occurred. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit landed at -0.73%, between the best (+0.54%) and worst (-1.19%) unrealized, so exit execution neither cost nor saved much relative to what was available intraday. Dominant factor: signal failure — the news-driven upside prediction was directionally wrong. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.