🚨 Alert #3798 Tue Sep-01 18:40:29
TSMC's Arizona facility has achieved volume production of NVIDIA Blackwell wafers, marking a significant milestone for U.S.-based advanced semiconductor manufacturing.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSM (product: TSMC's Arizona facility has achieved volume production of NVIDIA Blackwell wafers, marking a significant milestone for U.S.-based advanced semiconductor manufacturing.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long TSM exiting 2026-09-01] → close +0.34% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD → close +0.58% |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (product: TSMC's Arizona facility has achieved volume production of NVIDIA Blackwell wafers, marking a significant milestone for U.S.-based advanced semiconductor manufacturing.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 415.32 | 415.42 | +0.20 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S4 | +0.15% | -3.64% | Signal: Effectively wrong-to-flat. The predicted overnight upward drift never materialized — the position spent time down as much as -3.64% and only clawed back to +0.02% by the exit. A catalyst that lets the trade go 3.6% underwater is not confirming the thesis. Timing: The data doesn't settle whether the news was already priced in — price was slightly down (-0.29%) into entry, so there's no evidence of a pre-entry pop, but also no evidence the market hadn't already digested the announcement earlier. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit actually captured nearly all of the tiny upside available (+0.02% realized vs. +0.15% max) and, by luck of timing, avoided the large drawdown. The dominant factor is the signal: the news-based drift edge simply didn't show up, and the near-breakeven result masks a trade that was mostly deep in the red. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.