🚨 Alert #3660 Mon Aug-31 16:10:42
Micron Technology reported a blowout fiscal Q3 with revenue of $41.46 billion and EPS of $25.11, beating estimates significantly while guiding fiscal Q4 revenue to $50 billion.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MU | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long MU (earnings: Micron Technology reported a blowout fiscal Q3 with revenue of $41.46 billion and EPS of $25.11, beating estimates significantly while guiding fiscal Q4 revenue to $50 billion.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close +0.63% |
| S4 | MU | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long MU at close, exit next close (earnings: Micron Technology reported a blowout fiscal Q3 with revenue of $41.46 billion and EPS of $25.11, beating estimates significantly while guiding fiscal Q4 revenue to $50 billion.) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted long, verdict now PRICED (+2.36% since close, 284m after decision), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MU | ▲ long | 1 | 941.60 | 955.04 | +13.44 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| MU S1 | +1.60% | -0.58% | Signal: right. The bullish call worked — price rose ~1.4% from entry, and the +0.77% pre-entry drift means only a small part of the move had already happened, so timing cost was modest (~0.9% above prev close at fill). Exit: near-optimal. The +13.44 P&L (+1.43%) captured almost all of the +1.60% best unrealized, with minimal drawdown (-0.58%) endured. Dominant factor: a correct signal executed and exited well — this trade is essentially clean. (Caveat: the rationale's earnings figures look implausible for MU and can't be verified from the data here, so whether the stated catalyst was real is unsettled — but the directional bet itself paid.) |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.