🚨 Alert #3638 Mon Aug-31 13:30:51
Reports suggest SK Hynix may partner with Intel Foundry for HBM4E base-die manufacturing, potentially displacing current supplier TSMC.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short TSM (partnership: Reports suggest SK Hynix may partner with Intel Foundry for HBM4E base-die manufacturing, potentially displacing current supplier TSMC.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S1 long TSM decision 14801] |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close +0.97% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: short TSM at close, exit next close (partnership: Reports suggest SK Hynix may partner with Intel Foundry for HBM4E base-die manufacturing, potentially displacing current supplier TSMC.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 85 long (decision 14804) for S4 TSM exiting 2026-09-01] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▼ short | 2 | 420.47 | 415.48 | +9.98 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +1.34% | -0.65% | Signal: right. The bearish call played out — TSM fell ~1.2% after entry, and the move had not already happened by entry (price was roughly flat vs. prior close at decision time, so the short wasn't chasing). Exit: near-optimal. The +$9.98 (~1.19%) captured almost all of the +1.34% best unrealized, with modest -0.65% adverse excursion — notably, the exit was mechanical (netted out by an outranking long decision), not a deliberate take-profit, so the good capture is partly luck of timing. Dominant factor: correct directional signal with fresh timing; the incidental early close happened to land near the peak of the move. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.