overnight drift: long PLTR at close, exit next close (earnings: Palantir reported Q2 revenue of $1.94 billion, beating estimates by 92.8% year-over-year growth and strong Pentagon AI deal momentum.)
Signal: wrong. The predicted overnight drift never materialized — the stock managed only +0.21% at its best before sliding steadily to -3.2%, and the exit at 180.17 landed essentially at the worst unrealized level, so the fixed next-close exit captured nearly the full loss (though there was almost nothing positive available to capture). Timing: the entry data (-1.40% since prev close, flat last 30m) shows the earnings news was already public and the stock was fading, suggesting the beat was priced in, but the data here doesn't show how much of any post-earnings pop had already occurred and reversed. The dominant factor is a bad signal: betting on continued drift after a widely-reported earnings beat, when the move was over or reversing.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
