verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long META (analyst: Bernstein analysts project Meta could surpass Google Search ad revenue by 2026 driven by AI-enhanced advertising efficiency.) [closed early: netted out by outranking S1 short META decision 14701]
overnight drift: long META at close, exit next close (analyst: Bernstein analysts project Meta could surpass Google Search ad revenue by 2026 driven by AI-enhanced advertising efficiency.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 85 short (decision 14704) for S4 META exiting 2026-09-01]
Signal: wrong. The bullish call never materialized — the position was never meaningfully positive (best unrealized just -0.17%) and META only declined while open. Timing: not the issue — pre-entry drift was negligible (+0.09%), so this wasn't a case of chasing a move that already happened; the predicted move simply never came. Exit: roughly neutral — the forced early close (netted against a short signal) exited at -0.93%, between the best (-0.17%) and worst (-1.22%) unrealized, so little was left on the table given nothing positive was ever available. The dominant factor is a bad directional signal; note the Bernstein thesis is a 2026 projection, and this data can't tell us whether a longer hold would have vindicated it.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 70.
