verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AAPL (product: Apple unveiled the M6 Mac Mini featuring a new 2nm architecture and enhanced AI capabilities, alongside updates to the Mac Studio lineup.)
overnight drift: long AAPL at close, exit next close (product: Apple unveiled the M6 Mac Mini featuring a new 2nm architecture and enhanced AI capabilities, alongside updates to the Mac Studio lineup.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 short (decision 14392) for S4 AAPL exiting 2026-08-31]
Signal: correct — the bullish call played out, with the position moving as much as +1.89% in its favor and only -0.21% against. Timing: reasonably fresh — only +0.54% had accrued since the prior close at decision time, so most of the move came after entry (though entry filled ~0.54% above prev close, a modest slippage from the decision price). Exit: captured about +1.06% of the +1.89% peak — roughly half the available move left on the table, but a solidly positive capture. Dominant factor: a correct signal executed adequately; the only real cost was an exit that gave back some of the peak, not a flaw in direction or timing.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
