🚨 Alert #3509 Thu Aug-27 19:40:13
Apple is set to unveil the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max featuring A20 Pro chips on a 2nm process at its September 9 event, marking the first major launch under new CEO John Ternus.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AAPL | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AAPL (product: Apple is set to unveil the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max featuring A20 Pro chips on a 2nm process at its September 9 event, marking the first major launch under new CEO John Ternus.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted long, netted, outranked by S3 short AAPL mat 85 (new mat 65)] → close +0.10% |
| S2 | TSM | ○ skip | — | inferred long move already absorbed: TSM +1.81% since prev close → close +0.39% |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | AAPL | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long AAPL at close, exit next close (product: Apple is set to unveil the iPhone 18 Pro and Pro Max featuring A20 Pro chips on a 2nm process at its September 9 event, marking the first major launch under new CEO John Ternus.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | AAPL | ▲ long | 3 | 314.74 | 319.64 | +14.70 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AAPL S4 | +2.39% | -0.28% | Signal: right. The long call worked — AAPL rose ~1.56% from entry, and the worst drawdown was a trivial -0.28%. Timing: mostly fine, small cost. Only +0.30% had moved by decision time, but the fill at 314.74 was ~0.41% above the prior close, so a modest chunk of the overnight drift was paid at entry rather than captured. Exit: adequate, not optimal. The +1.56% realized (+$14.70) captured about two-thirds of the +2.39% peak unrealized — consistent with a mechanical next-close exit giving back some intraday high. The dominant factor is simply a correct signal; whether the news catalyst in the rationale actually drove the move can't be determined from this data. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.