verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short MSFT (m&a: Nvidia has reportedly agreed to acquire AI model platform Hugging Face for $12.9 billion to consolidate its dominance in the AI software ecosystem.)
Signal was wrong — that's the dominant factor. The bearish call on MSFT (based on an Nvidia/Hugging Face deal, a tenuous link to MSFT at best) failed: the stock rose steadily after entry, offering at most +0.35% unrealized before ending near the worst point (-1.24%). Timing isn't the issue — the anticipated move never occurred at all rather than having already happened (price was only +0.80% on the day at decision). The exit gave back nearly the full adverse excursion (-1.05% realized vs. -1.24% worst), but with only +0.35% ever available, no exit rule would have salvaged a materially better outcome from a bad signal.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
