🚨 Alert #3363 Wed Aug-26 18:10:04
Microsoft reported fiscal 2026 full-year revenue of $331.8 billion and net income of $133.7 billion, representing an 18% and 31% increase respectively, despite a decline in its market capitalization over the same period.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long MSFT (earnings: Microsoft reported fiscal 2026 full-year revenue of $331.8 billion and net income of $133.7 billion, representing an 18% and 31% increase respectively, despite a decline in its market capitalization over the same period.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long MSFT exiting 2026-08-26] → close +0.50% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for GOOGL → close +0.17% |
| S4 | MSFT | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long MSFT at close, exit next close (earnings: Microsoft reported fiscal 2026 full-year revenue of $331.8 billion and net income of $133.7 billion, representing an 18% and 31% increase respectively, despite a decline in its market capitalization over the same period.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | MSFT | ▲ long | 2 | 496.79 | 504.98 | +16.38 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT S4 | +1.88% | -4.91% | Signal: Right — the long earnings-drift call paid off, with price finishing +1.65% above entry. Timing: Only +0.50% of the move had occurred by decision time, so entry wasn't chasing an exhausted move; however, the entry fill (496.79) was ~1% above prior close, worse than the price context implied, and the position sat through a -4.91% drawdown before recovering — the data here doesn't show whether that drawdown was avoidable with different entry timing. Exit: Very good — +1.65% realized against a +1.88% best unrealized, capturing nearly all of the available upside. Dominant factor: correct signal with a near-optimal exit; the notable blemish is the deep -4.91% interim drawdown the strategy had to survive to collect it. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.