Mon Aug-31 19:05:58
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #3317 Wed Aug-26 13:30:29
Warren Buffett is 'still in the game': The Omaha Oracle may be making more Berkshire investment decisions than you think
Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Alphabet by 83% in the second quarter, making it the conglomerate's third-largest U.S. stock holding.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long GOOGL (other: Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Alphabet by 83% in the second quarter, making it the conglomerate's third-largest U.S. stock holding.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long GOOGL at close, exit next close (other: Berkshire Hathaway increased its stake in Alphabet by 83% in the second quarter, making it the conglomerate's third-largest U.S. stock holding.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 short (decision 13516) for S4 GOOGL exiting 2026-08-27] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ▲ long | 2 | 345.58 | 341.89 | -7.38 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL S1 | -0.06% | -1.54% | Signal was the failure. The trade never went positive (best unrealized −0.06%), so the bullish call was simply wrong over the holding period — the Berkshire stake news produced no upward move. Timing wasn't the issue in the sense of chasing a completed move: price was flat at decision time (+0.01% since prev close), though whether the news was already priced in before that window can't be settled from this data. The exit at −1.07% sat between the best (−0.06%) and worst (−1.54%) unrealized, so exit execution neither rescued nor materially worsened a trade that offered essentially nothing to capture. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.