🚨 Alert #3260 Tue Aug-25 17:00:18
Taiwan Semiconductor reported a 33.7% year-over-year revenue increase to $40.2 billion in Q2 2026 and provided strong Q3 guidance driven by AI infrastructure demand.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.25% | -0.09% | 414.52 | 418.56 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | +4.52% | -0.43% | 466.91 | 482.30 | |
| MU | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.77% | -0.78% | 921.02 | 944.54 | |
| peer NVDA | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.47% | +0.14% | 210.10 | 214.28 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.27% | +0.25% | 159.32 | 161.62 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | FRESH | +0.46% | -0.10% | 355.64 | 363.55 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long TSM (earnings: Taiwan Semiconductor reported a 33.7% year-over-year revenue increase to $40.2 billion in Q2 2026 and provided strong Q3 guidance driven by AI infrastructure demand.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close +0.72% |
| S4 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (earnings: Taiwan Semiconductor reported a 33.7% year-over-year revenue increase to $40.2 billion in Q2 2026 and provided strong Q3 guidance driven by AI infrastructure demand.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 415.29 | 416.60 | +2.62 | closed |
| S4 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 416.68 | 417.06 | +0.76 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +0.50% | -0.16% | Signal: Right — direction was bullish and price drifted up after entry (best +0.50%, worst only −0.16%). Timing: The move was largely already in by entry — the stock was +1.25% over prior close at decision time and the fill (415.29) was well above prev close (410.13), so the strategy paid for most of the earnings repricing and captured only the residual drift. Exit: Reasonable — the +0.32% realized (+$2.62) captured roughly two-thirds of the +0.50% peak available, so little was left on the table within the holding window. Dominant factor: late timing. The signal was correct but stale — the bulk of the earnings move happened before entry, leaving only a small residual to capture, which the exit did adequately. (Note: data doesn't show how large the pre-entry move was beyond +1.25% same-day, so whether an earlier session captured more is unknowable here.) |
| TSM S4 | +0.95% | -0.49% | Signal: Directionally right, but barely — price closed higher than entry, so the drift call wasn't wrong. Timing: The move had largely already happened. TSM was +1.25% over prior close at decision time, and the fill at 416.68 was ~1.6% above the prior close of 410.13 — the earnings pop was mostly consumed before entry, leaving only ~0.09% of drift to capture. Exit: The close-to-close exit captured +0.09% versus a best unrealized of +0.95% (~$7.90 on 2 shares vs. $0.76 realized), so most of the available intraday gain was left behind — though a mechanical next-close exit doesn't attempt to capture that peak by design. Dominant factor: timing. Entering after the earnings move was already priced left almost nothing for the overnight-drift thesis to earn; the exit just confirmed how little was left. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.