Mon Aug-31 19:04:22
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #3209 Tue Aug-25 13:04:36
Nvidia Stock Likely To See $280-Billion Price Swing After Earnings; Here's What Options Data Show
Options markets are pricing in a 5.4% post-earnings move for Nvidia, implying a potential $280 billion swing in market capitalization following its upcoming quarterly report.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.12% | +0.08% | 210.10 | 214.28 | |
| peer AMD | · unclear | PRICED | +2.79% | +0.42% | 466.91 | 482.30 | |
| MU | · unclear | PRICED | +2.48% | +0.19% | 921.02 | 944.54 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.93% | +0.06% | 35.75 | 38.75 | |
| TSM | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.48% | +0.19% | 414.52 | 418.56 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.18% | +0.18% | 355.64 | 363.55 |
🧭 Decisions
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.