verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AAPL (analyst: Bank of America maintains a Buy rating on Apple with a $380 price target as John Ternus prepares to succeed Tim Cook as CEO.)
overnight drift: long AAPL at close, exit next close (analyst: Bank of America maintains a Buy rating on Apple with a $380 price target as John Ternus prepares to succeed Tim Cook as CEO.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 long (decision 12208) for S4 AAPL exiting 2026-08-24]
Signal was the failure. The bullish call didn't play out over the holding period: the stock never rose more than +0.26% before dropping, and price finished below entry. Timing wasn't the issue — the pre-entry move was negligible (+0.20% since prior close, +0.06% in the last 30m), so the trade wasn't chasing an already-completed move. The exit was middling but acceptable: the -0.48% realized loss sits between the +0.26% best and -1.26% worst unrealized, meaning there was little upside to capture and the exit avoided roughly the worst of the drawdown. Note the rationale (analyst rating/CEO succession news) can't be validated for freshness from the data here — only that the price hadn't yet moved on it at entry.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
