🚨 Alert #299 Mon Jul-20 20:10:26
Microsoft announced it will offer AMD's Helios-based AI systems on Azure, validating AMD's competitiveness ahead of its Advancing AI event.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +3.25% · Δ 30m -0.60% · px 511.87 (prev 495.76) → close -1.25% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> sell NVDA (partnership: Microsoft announced it will offer AMD's Helios-based AI systems on Azure, validating AMD's competitiveness ahead of its Advancing AI event.) |
| S4 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +3.25% · Δ 30m -0.60% · px 511.87 (prev 495.76) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | NVDA | ▼ short | 4 | 203.18 | 203.25 | -0.28 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S3 | +0.39% | -0.08% | Entry vs. outcome: The rationale was a second-order inference—shorting NVDA on AMD-positive news—which is a weak, indirect signal, and the market agreed: the trade went essentially nowhere (-0.28 USD, max adverse move only -0.08%). Notably, the position saw +0.39% unrealized gain that was never captured, so even the marginal thesis briefly worked but the exit logic gave it back. Improvement: Restrict FRESH verdicts to news where the traded ticker is the primary subject; competitor/partnership news about other companies should require a downgraded verdict (e.g., SPECULATIVE) with reduced size or no trade at all. Alternatively, if cross-ticker inference trades are kept, add a take-profit trigger (e.g., +0.3%) since these weak-signal trades evidently mean-revert fast. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.