kingfisher — alert #2966

🚨 Alert #2966 Thu Aug-20 17:10:21

Samsung lifts foundry prices up to 15% on new 4/5nm orders

cryptodaily.co.uk · Thu Aug-20 17:00:48 published · Thu Aug-20 17:10:21 alerted · alerted 9m after publish · read at cryptodaily.co.uk ↗ · other · mat 65

Samsung has raised prices by approximately 15% for new orders on its 4nm and 5nm foundry services due to tight supply and strong demand for advanced-node silicon.

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi
primary TSM	▲ bullish	FRESH	+0.58%	+0.31%	408.14	417.74
QCOM	· unclear	REPRICING	+1.35%	+0.67%	160.18	164.99
AMD	· unclear	REPRICING	-0.60%	+0.57%	460.46	471.93
peer NVDA	· unclear	FRESH	-0.47%	+0.22%	215.96	219.30
AVGO	· unclear	FRESH	+0.37%	+0.17%	360.86	366.52
AAPL	· unclear	FRESH	+0.02%	+0.16%	311.30	318.51

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	TSM	● enter	▲ long	verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSM (other: Samsung has raised prices by approximately 15% for new orders on its 4nm and 5nm foundry services due to tight supply and strong demand for advanced-node silicon.)
S2	-	○ skip	—	no counterparty in universe
S3	NVDA	○ skip	—	direction unclear for NVDA → close -0.01%
S4	TSM	● enter	▲ long	overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (other: Samsung has raised prices by approximately 15% for new orders on its 4nm and 5nm foundry services due to tight supply and strong demand for advanced-node silicon.)

📈 Trades

strategy	ticker	side	qty	entry	exit	P&L $	status
S1	TSM	▲ long	2	414.60	415.40	+1.60	closed
S4	TSM	▲ long	2	415.10	418.36	+6.52	closed

Retrospectives

ticker	mfe	mae	reflection
TSM S1	+0.41%	-0.10%	Signal: Right, but weakly — the bullish call on TSM (Samsung foundry price hikes implying pricing power across advanced nodes) produced only a +0.41% max favorable move, so the thesis was directionally correct but not potent. Timing: Partially eroded — the stock was already +0.58% on the day at decision time, and entry filled at 414.6 vs. a 412.09 prior close, meaning much of the day's move preceded the fill; whether the news itself was already priced in earlier can't be settled from this data. Exit: The exit at +0.19% captured roughly half the +0.41% best available, with minimal adverse risk (-0.10%). The dominant factor is a weak signal: even perfect exit execution would have yielded only ~$3.40 on this position, so the trade's small payoff reflects a marginal edge more than any timing or exit failure.
TSM S4	+2.29%	+0.07%	Signal: Right — the long thesis (advanced-node pricing strength) played out; the stock never went meaningfully against the position (worst unrealized only +0.07%). Timing: Partly late — the stock had already moved +0.73% above the prior close by fill (entry 415.1 vs. 412.09), so some of the drift the strategy targets was consumed before entry. Exit: This is the dominant factor. The trade peaked at +2.29% unrealized but the scheduled next-close exit captured only +0.79% (+$6.52), leaving roughly two-thirds of the available move on the table. Whether the peak was capturable under the mechanical exit rule isn't something this data settles — but the gap between realized and best unrealized is the standout fact.

ticker

mfe

mae

reflection

TSM S1

+0.41%

-0.10%

Signal: Right, but weakly — the bullish call on TSM (Samsung foundry price hikes implying pricing power across advanced nodes) produced only a +0.41% max favorable move, so the thesis was directionally correct but not potent.

Timing: Partially eroded — the stock was already +0.58% on the day at decision time, and entry filled at 414.6 vs. a 412.09 prior close, meaning much of the day's move preceded the fill; whether the news itself was already priced in earlier can't be settled from this data.

Exit: The exit at +0.19% captured roughly half the +0.41% best available, with minimal adverse risk (-0.10%). The dominant factor is a weak signal: even perfect exit execution would have yielded only ~$3.40 on this position, so the trade's small payoff reflects a marginal edge more than any timing or exit failure.

TSM S4

+2.29%

+0.07%

Signal: Right — the long thesis (advanced-node pricing strength) played out; the stock never went meaningfully against the position (worst unrealized only +0.07%).

Timing: Partly late — the stock had already moved +0.73% above the prior close by fill (entry 415.1 vs. 412.09), so some of the drift the strategy targets was consumed before entry.

Exit: This is the dominant factor. The trade peaked at +2.29% unrealized but the scheduled next-close exit captured only +0.79% (+$6.52), leaving roughly two-thirds of the available move on the table. Whether the peak was capturable under the mechanical exit rule isn't something this data settles — but the gap between realized and best unrealized is the standout fact.

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.