verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long MU (product: Micron Technology announced a $10 billion investment in new research laboratories dedicated to advancing memory and AI technologies.)
overnight drift: long MU at close, exit next close (product: Micron Technology announced a $10 billion investment in new research laboratories dedicated to advancing memory and AI technologies.) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted long, verdict now PRICED (+3.43% since close, 350m after decision), order not placed]
Signal: right. The bullish call worked — the trade never went underwater (worst unrealized just +0.03%) and price moved steadily up. Timing: fine. Only +0.77% of the move had occurred by decision time, and the entry premium over prev close (~0.8%) didn't prevent a clean run. Exit: near-optimal — the +26.19 P&L is a +2.77% gain versus a +2.87% best unrealized, capturing essentially all of what was available. The dominant factor is simply a correct directional signal executed well end-to-end; nothing in this data suggests a flaw.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.