verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long QCOM (product: Qualcomm confirmed the launch of two Snapdragon 8 Elite chips on September 22, citing double-digit price increases driven by higher TSMC wafer costs.)
overnight drift: long QCOM at close, exit next close (product: Qualcomm confirmed the launch of two Snapdragon 8 Elite chips on September 22, citing double-digit price increases driven by higher TSMC wafer costs.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 75 short (decision 11820) for S4 QCOM exiting 2026-08-21]
Timing is the dominant failure. At decision time QCOM was around ~160.7 (prev close 161.91, down 0.76%), yet the fill came at 163.42 — roughly 1.7% higher — meaning the bullish repricing the rationale predicted had largely already happened before entry, and the trade was chasing the pop. From that fill the stock never gave more than +1.02% and the exit at 160.50 (-1.79%) was taken almost at the worst unrealized point (-1.85%), so the exit captured essentially the bottom of the trade's range. Whether the bullish signal was directionally correct on a longer horizon can't be settled from this data — within the holding window the move was net down, but that's confounded by the late, elevated entry.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
