🚨 Alert #2920 Wed Aug-19 18:20:16
AMD reported record Q2 revenue of $11.5 billion with data center sales doubling, driven by an expected 80% year-over-year growth in traditional server CPU shipments for the second half of 2026.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -3.71% · Δ 30m -0.33% · px 466.42 (prev 484.39) → close +0.09% |
| S2 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for MSFT → close +0.17% |
| S3 | NVDA | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short NVDA (earnings: AMD reported record Q2 revenue of $11.5 billion with data center sales doubling, driven by an expected 80% year-over-year growth in traditional server CPU shipments for the second half of 2026.) |
| S4 | AMD | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -3.71% · Δ 30m -0.33% · px 466.42 (prev 484.39) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S3 | NVDA | ▼ short | 4 | 218.86 | 217.13 | +6.92 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| NVDA S3 | +0.79% | -0.49% | Signal: The bearish call was directionally correct — NVDA fell from 218.86 to 217.13 while the trade was open. Whether AMD's strong results logically imply NVDA weakness is dubious as a rationale, but the data here can't settle causation, only that the direction worked. Timing: Entry was not late — NVDA was only down 0.35% from prior close with essentially no move in the last 30 minutes, so the move had not already happened. Exit: The exit was near-optimal — the realized gain (~0.79% on the short) matches the best unrealized of +0.79%, meaning the trade captured essentially all of what was available. Dominant factor: correct signal with a well-timed exit that captured the full available move; this trade worked as intended, even if the entry rationale's logic (AMD strength → NVDA short) is questionable on its face. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.