verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short PLTR (analyst: Michael Burry has re-established a bearish position on Palantir Technologies, predicting its long-run intrinsic value is below $1 per share.)
overnight drift: short PLTR at close, exit next close (analyst: Michael Burry has re-established a bearish position on Palantir Technologies, predicting its long-run intrinsic value is below $1 per share.) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted short, verdict now PRICED (+2.27% since close, 334m after decision), order not placed]
Signal (dominant factor): wrong. The bearish thesis failed — PLTR rose ~2% against the short, and the position never gained more than +0.53% while open. Timing: entry context shows only a +0.32% day-over-day move, so there's no evidence the predicted downside had already occurred; the direction simply didn't materialize. Exit: the -1.96% realized loss sits near the worst unrealized (-2.57%) rather than near the modest +0.53% peak, so the exit gave back nearly everything available, but that's secondary — with a max favorable move of only half a percent, there was little to capture even with perfect exits.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
