🚨 Alert #2887 Wed Aug-19 13:40:19
Google received a warrant for 58.97 million Marvell shares tied to custom AI chip revenue, signaling a deepening strategic partnership and potential diversification away from Broadcom.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long GOOGL (partnership: Google received a warrant for 58.97 million Marvell shares tied to custom AI chip revenue, signaling a deepening strategic partnership and potential diversification away from Broadcom.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | AMZN | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMZN → close +2.10% |
| S4 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long GOOGL at close, exit next close (partnership: Google received a warrant for 58.97 million Marvell shares tied to custom AI chip revenue, signaling a deepening strategic partnership and potential diversification away from Broadcom.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 75 long lost to mat 85 long (decision 11736) for S4 GOOGL exiting 2026-08-20] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ▲ long | 2 | 343.77 | 344.49 | +1.44 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL S1 | +0.83% | -0.83% | Signal: Nominally right — the trade exited positive (+0.21%) — but the symmetric ±0.83% unrealized range shows GOOGL chopped both ways while open, so the data doesn't confirm the warrant news actually drove a directional move rather than ordinary noise. Timing: Entry wasn't late; price was down 0.50% from prior close with only a +0.16% recent drift, so the anticipated move had not already occurred by entry. Exit: The exit captured roughly a quarter of the best available move (+0.21% realized vs. +0.83% peak), which is the dominant factor here — a bluntly mediocre exit inside a range-bound trade, leaving most of the available upside on the table, though avoiding the equal-sized downside. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.