🚨 Alert #2872 Wed Aug-19 13:14:55
Amazon reported that its AWS AI business has surpassed a $25 billion annual revenue run rate with triple-digit growth, while AWS operating margins expanded to 39%.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AMZN (earnings: Amazon reported that its AWS AI business has surpassed a $25 billion annual revenue run rate with triple-digit growth, while AWS operating margins expanded to 39%.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for MSFT → close +1.06% |
| S4 | AMZN | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long AMZN at close, exit next close (earnings: Amazon reported that its AWS AI business has surpassed a $25 billion annual revenue run rate with triple-digit growth, while AWS operating margins expanded to 39%.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 85 long (decision 11584) for S4 AMZN exiting 2026-08-20] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ▲ long | 3 | 262.07 | 265.75 | +11.04 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN S1 | +1.61% | -1.26% | Signal: right. The bullish call played out — price rose from 262.07 to 265.75 (+1.40%), consistent with the AWS earnings thesis. Timing: partially degraded at the fill. At decision time the stock was only +0.17% vs. prev close (259.45), so the move hadn't run yet — but the fill at 262.07 was ~1% above prev close, meaning roughly a percent of the pop occurred between decision and entry. Whether that gap was slippage or delay isn't determinable from this data. Exit: near-optimal. The +1.40% realized captured almost all of the +1.61% best unrealized, with modest -1.26% adverse excursion along the way. Dominant factor: a correct signal executed well — the only leakage was the entry fill above the decision-time price. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.