verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long MSFT (partnership: Microsoft accepted the first phase of IREN's AI infrastructure deployment and Nvidia awarded IREN Exemplar Cloud status for its GB300 NVL72 systems.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted long, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 short MSFT, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close -0.35%
overnight drift: long MSFT at close, exit next close (partnership: Microsoft accepted the first phase of IREN's AI infrastructure deployment and Nvidia awarded IREN Exemplar Cloud status for its GB300 NVL72 systems.)
Signal: the direction was right — MSFT closed up ~0.5% from entry — but the rationale is suspect: the cited news (Microsoft accepting IREN's deployment, Nvidia certifying IREN's systems) is primarily an IREN catalyst, not a MSFT one, so the win may be coincidental to the stated thesis. Timing: only a modest +0.60% had occurred pre-entry, so the trade wasn't badly chasing. Exit: the mechanical next-close exit captured +0.53% against a best unrealized of +2.79% (and sat through a -5.47% drawdown), so most of the available move was left on the table — the dominant factor here is the exit, with the ticker/catalyst mismatch as a close second worth flagging.
📖 Glossary
S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.
