Mon Aug-31 19:08:41
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🚨 Alert #2851 Tue Aug-18 20:10:22
TSMC Stock Slides Over 4% Despite 45% Revenue Surge
TSMC shares declined over 4% despite a 45% year-over-year revenue surge in July as investors reacted to valuation concerns rather than fundamental weakness.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▼ bearish | PRICED | -4.20% | +0.07% | 410.91 | 421.24 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -5.12% | +0.20% | 475.34 | 492.00 | |
| ASML | · unclear | PRICED | -4.76% | -0.08% | 1776.46 | 1819.80 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | PRICED | -3.35% | -0.20% | 377.11 | 387.46 | |
| peer NVDA | · unclear | PRICED | -2.30% | -0.14% | 218.93 | 221.15 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | PRICED | -2.29% | +0.34% | 36.23 | 37.93 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -4.20% · Δ 30m +0.07% · px 412.84 (prev 430.95) → close +0.36% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close -0.16% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -4.20% · Δ 30m +0.07% · px 412.84 (prev 430.95) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.