🚨 Alert #2846 Tue Aug-18 19:30:44
Palantir reported a 93% year-over-year revenue surge and raised full-year guidance, while Microsoft posted an earnings beat with 18% sales growth driven by its Intelligent Cloud segment.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | PLTR | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long PLTR (earnings: Palantir reported a 93% year-over-year revenue surge and raised full-year guidance, while Microsoft posted an earnings beat with 18% sales growth driven by its Intelligent Cloud segment.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long PLTR exiting 2026-08-18] → close -0.81% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | PLTR | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long PLTR at close, exit next close (earnings: Palantir reported a 93% year-over-year revenue surge and raised full-year guidance, while Microsoft posted an earnings beat with 18% sales growth driven by its Intelligent Cloud segment.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | PLTR | ▲ long | 5 | 171.87 | 175.46 | +17.95 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR S4 | +2.67% | -6.83% | Signal: Right — the long call on positive earnings paid off, with the position closing +2.09%. Timing: The move had not already happened; price was only +0.41% off the prior close at decision time (and the fill was actually below the prior close), so entry didn't chase. Exit: Good capture — +2.09% realized against +2.67% best unrealized, so the exit got most of what was available. Dominant factor: correct signal with efficient exit. The notable caveat is the -6.83% worst unrealized drawdown while open — the trade rode through a swing far larger than the final gain, which the fixed close-to-close rule survived by luck of the path, not by design. The data here doesn't show when in the holding period that drawdown occurred. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.