Mon Aug-31 19:07:06
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🚨 Alert #2798 Tue Aug-18 14:30:49
Nvidia Filed $105B Ohio Guarantee, Not $250B; SEC Disclosure Corrects July Reports
Nvidia's SEC filing clarifies that its financial guarantee for the OpenAI Ohio data center deal is capped at $105 billion and triggered only by insolvency, significantly reducing perceived risk compared to earlier reports of a $250 billion unconditional backstop.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary NVDA | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -2.11% | -0.04% | 218.93 | 221.15 | |
| AMD | · unclear | PRICED | -3.44% | +0.07% | 475.34 | 492.00 | |
| TSM | · unclear | PRICED | -2.98% | -0.41% | 410.91 | 421.24 | |
| SMCI | · unclear | PRICED | -2.56% | +0.95% | 36.23 | 37.93 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | PRICED | -2.19% | -0.27% | 377.11 | 387.46 | |
| META | · unclear | REPRICING | -1.93% | -0.68% | 543.70 | 565.22 | |
| GOOGL | · unclear | FRESH | -0.56% | -0.10% | 325.20 | 344.55 | |
| AMZN | · unclear | FRESH | -0.29% | -0.08% | 258.17 | 262.08 | |
| peer MSFT | · unclear | FRESH | +0.19% | -0.44% | 479.83 | 496.14 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.11% · Δ 30m -0.04% · px 220.26 (prev 225.01) → close -0.35% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for MSFT → close +0.06% |
| S4 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.11% · Δ 30m -0.04% · px 220.26 (prev 225.01) |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.