🚨 Alert #2785 Tue Aug-18 13:04:10
Anthropic is reportedly on track to achieve over $65 billion in annualized revenue, driven by strategic partnerships with Amazon and Google.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AMZN (partnership: Anthropic is reportedly on track to achieve over $65 billion in annualized revenue, driven by strategic partnerships with Amazon and Google.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for MSFT → close -0.36% |
| S4 | AMZN | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long AMZN at close, exit next close (partnership: Anthropic is reportedly on track to achieve over $65 billion in annualized revenue, driven by strategic partnerships with Amazon and Google.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 short (decision 11368) for S4 AMZN exiting 2026-08-19] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ▲ long | 3 | 259.39 | 259.51 | +0.36 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN S1 | +1.02% | -0.56% | Signal: Directionally right, if barely — price rose after entry and the trade saw +1.02% unrealized upside, though whether the Anthropic-revenue rationale actually drove AMZN is not something this data can settle. Timing: Not chased — entry was below the prior close (259.39 vs 261.31) with the stock roughly flat intraday, so the move had not already happened. Exit: This is the dominant failure. The trade captured +0.36 USD (~+0.05%) against a best unrealized of +1.02% — roughly 95% of the available favorable move was given back or never taken, while the worst drawdown (-0.56%) was survived for essentially nothing. The exit, not the signal or timing, determined the outcome. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.