🚨 Alert #2742 Mon Aug-17 16:10:20
Amazon reported strong Q2 earnings with AWS revenue up 36.7% and operating income rising 43%, driving a 15% surge in its stock price.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long AMZN (earnings: Amazon reported strong Q2 earnings with AWS revenue up 36.7% and operating income rising 43%, driving a 15% surge in its stock price.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -2.45% · Δ 30m +0.05% · px 483.27 (prev 495.40) → close -0.70% |
| S4 | AMZN | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long AMZN at close, exit next close (earnings: Amazon reported strong Q2 earnings with AWS revenue up 36.7% and operating income rising 43%, driving a 15% surge in its stock price.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ▲ long | 3 | 260.76 | 260.61 | -0.45 | closed |
| S4 | AMZN | ▲ long | 3 | 260.83 | 259.51 | -3.96 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN S1 | +0.36% | -0.91% | (reflection unavailable — LLM call failed) |
| AMZN S4 | +0.46% | -1.11% | Signal/timing: The predicted post-earnings drift didn't materialize — the stock closed lower (-0.51% from entry), and the rationale itself notes the 15% earnings surge had already occurred, so entry came after the move was largely priced in. Note the price context (-0.69% since prev close) suggests the stock was already fading by entry, consistent with the pop being spent. Exit: The -0.51% exit sits roughly midway between the best (+0.46%) and worst (-1.11%) unrealized, so the mechanical next-close exit neither missed a meaningful gain nor took the full downside — exit execution isn't the story here. Dominant factor: Timing/signal failure — chasing an earnings move that had already happened, with no residual drift left to capture. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.