🚨 Alert #2723 Mon Aug-17 14:40:16
Palantir reported Q2 revenue of $1.94 billion and raised full-year guidance to $8.15 billion, beating analyst expectations despite high valuation concerns.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | PLTR | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long PLTR (earnings: Palantir reported Q2 revenue of $1.94 billion and raised full-year guidance to $8.15 billion, beating analyst expectations despite high valuation concerns.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | PLTR | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long PLTR at close, exit next close (earnings: Palantir reported Q2 revenue of $1.94 billion and raised full-year guidance to $8.15 billion, beating analyst expectations despite high valuation concerns.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | PLTR | ▲ long | 5 | 173.58 | 172.49 | -5.45 | closed |
| S4 | PLTR | ▲ long | 5 | 172.80 | 171.85 | -4.75 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| PLTR S1 | +1.55% | -0.54% | (reflection unavailable — LLM call failed) |
| PLTR S4 | +1.92% | -1.92% | Signal: wrong. The predicted overnight upward drift didn't materialize — PLTR closed down ~0.5% from entry (172.80 → 171.85), so the direction was simply incorrect over the holding window. Timing: not settled by this data. The rationale cites an earnings beat, but nothing here shows when that news was released relative to entry; the flat-to-slightly-down price context at decision time (-0.32% since prev close) is consistent with the pop having already occurred, but that's inference, not fact. Exit: mid-range, as designed. The mechanical next-close exit landed at -0.55%, between the +1.92% best and -1.92% worst unrealized — it left the +1.92% peak uncaptured but also avoided the trough. The dominant factor is the signal: a bad directional call, with the exit rule performing neutrally given what was available. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.