kingfisher — alert #2558

🚨 Alert #2558 Thu Aug-13 17:10:09

Microsoft's AI Sales Mostly Come From OpenAI, Disclosures Show (MSFT) - Bloomberg

blog.quintarelli.it · Thu Aug-13 17:09:14 published · Thu Aug-13 17:10:09 alerted · alerted 55s after publish · read at blog.quintarelli.it ↗ · other · mat 65

Disclosures reveal that OpenAI accounted for approximately 70% of Microsoft's AI sales in the last fiscal year, highlighting significant revenue concentration risk.

🎯 Tickers & verdicts

ticker	direction	verdict	since close	30m	day lo	day hi
primary MSFT	▼ bearish	FRESH	+0.40%	-0.20%	483.01	501.05
META	· unclear	REPRICING	+1.37%	+0.07%	579.88	595.53
AMZN	· unclear	FRESH	-0.54%	-0.37%	264.90	269.47
peer GOOGL	· unclear	FRESH	+0.51%	+0.18%	344.26	347.51

🧭 Decisions

strategy	ticker	action	side	rationale
S1	MSFT	○ skip	—	verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short MSFT (other: Disclosures reveal that OpenAI accounted for approximately 70% of Microsoft's AI sales in the last fiscal year, highlighting significant revenue concentration risk.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 long MSFT, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close +0.36%
S2	-	○ skip	—	no counterparty in universe
S3	GOOGL	○ skip	—	direction unclear for GOOGL → close +0.37%
S4	MSFT	○ skip	—	overnight drift: short MSFT at close, exit next close (other: Disclosures reveal that OpenAI accounted for approximately 70% of Microsoft's AI sales in the last fiscal year, highlighting significant revenue concentration risk.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 short lost to mat 65 short (decision 10352) for S4 MSFT exiting 2026-08-14]

📈 Trades

no trades spawned

📖 Glossary

S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.