🚨 Alert #2480 Wed Aug-12 18:50:16
Alphabet shares dropped approximately 4% following the announcement that Demis Hassabis is stepping down as head of Google DeepMind and legendary engineers Jeff Dean and Sanjay Ghemawat are departing to start a new AI company.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short GOOGL (other: Alphabet shares dropped approximately 4% following the announcement that Demis Hassabis is stepping down as head of Google DeepMind and legendary engineers Jeff Dean and Sanjay Ghemawat are departing to start a new AI company.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for MSFT → close +0.23% |
| S4 | GOOGL | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short GOOGL at close, exit next close (other: Alphabet shares dropped approximately 4% following the announcement that Demis Hassabis is stepping down as head of Google DeepMind and legendary engineers Jeff Dean and Sanjay Ghemawat are departing to start a new AI company.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | GOOGL | ▼ short | 2 | 341.50 | 343.65 | -4.30 | closed |
| S4 | GOOGL | ▼ short | 2 | 343.62 | 346.65 | -6.06 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| GOOGL S1 | +0.12% | -0.95% | Signal: Wrong over the holding period — GOOGL rose after entry, with max favorable move only +0.12% versus -0.95% against. This is the dominant factor: the bearish thesis simply didn't play out while the position was open. Timing: The rationale claims a ~4% drop had already occurred, but the price context shows only -0.66% since prior close — the data here doesn't reconcile with the claimed move, so whether the entry was chasing an already-completed drop can't be settled from this record. Exit: The -4.30 loss (~-0.63%) was exited near the worst unrealized (-0.95%); but with only +0.12% ever available, no exit rule would have salvaged this trade — the loss is attributable to the signal, not the exit. |
| GOOGL S4 | +0.32% | -1.19% | Signal was wrong — that's the dominant factor. GOOGL rose from 343.62 to 346.65 (+0.88%) over the holding period, moving against the short; the trade was never meaningfully in profit (best unrealized only +0.32%). Note the rationale claims a ~4% drop, but the price context shows only -0.66% since prior close, so whether the news move had already been fully absorbed before entry can't be settled from this data — regardless, no downward drift materialized. The exit near -0.88% gave back nearly the full worst unrealized (-1.19%), but with a max of +0.32% available, there was essentially nothing to capture; this was a directional loss, not an exit failure. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.