🚨 Alert #2429 Wed Aug-12 14:50:51
Broadcom raised its full-year 2026 AI semiconductor revenue guidance to $56 billion, citing strong demand for networking silicon and custom AI accelerators.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AVGO | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long AVGO (guidance: Broadcom raised its full-year 2026 AI semiconductor revenue guidance to $56 billion, citing strong demand for networking silicon and custom AI accelerators.) |
| S2 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for GOOGL → close -0.08% |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | AVGO | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long AVGO at close, exit next close (guidance: Broadcom raised its full-year 2026 AI semiconductor revenue guidance to $56 billion, citing strong demand for networking silicon and custom AI accelerators.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AVGO | ▲ long | 2 | 422.89 | 415.12 | -15.54 | closed |
| S4 | AVGO | ▲ long | 2 | 415.06 | 417.18 | +4.24 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO S1 | +0.32% | -1.94% | Timing was the dominant failure. The bullish signal may have been directionally reasonable for the news, but the move had already happened by entry — the fill at 422.89 was ~1.6% above prev close, buying after the pop. Post-entry, the stock offered almost nothing (best unrealized +0.32%) and slid steadily; the exit near -1.8% was close to the worst (-1.94%), but there was no meaningful gain available to capture, so the loss stems from chasing an already-priced move rather than poor exit execution. Whether the guidance thesis itself was wrong longer-term can't be judged from this data — only that no upside materialized while the position was open. |
| AVGO S4 | +2.27% | -0.72% | Signal: Right — the long call worked; price drifted up and the trade closed +0.51% ($4.24). Timing: The stock was already +1.65% off the prior close at entry, so some of the news move was consumed pre-entry, but enough drift remained that entry wasn't fatally late. Exit: This is the dominant factor — the position saw +2.27% unrealized (~$18.85) but the fixed next-close exit captured only about a quarter of that; the mechanical exit, not the signal, left most of the available move on the table. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.