🚨 Alert #2425 Wed Aug-12 13:50:42
Elon Musk stated that SpaceX's AI revenue will surpass its rocket and satellite sales by September, driven by training models on internal company data and employee interactions.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSLA | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.36% | +0.20% | 323.86 | 335.06 | |
| peer NVDA | · unclear | REPRICING | +1.29% | +0.52% | 219.15 | 224.84 | |
| MSFT | · unclear | FRESH | -0.68% | -0.21% | 488.82 | 501.46 | |
| GOOGL | · unclear | FRESH | +0.54% | +0.03% | 341.04 | 346.61 | |
| META | · unclear | FRESH | +0.42% | +0.10% | 578.33 | 602.08 | |
| AMZN | · unclear | FRESH | +0.29% | -0.24% | 267.14 | 273.99 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSLA (other: Elon Musk stated that SpaceX's AI revenue will surpass its rocket and satellite sales by September, driven by training models on internal company data and employee interactions.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for NVDA → close +1.37% |
| S4 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long TSLA at close, exit next close (other: Elon Musk stated that SpaceX's AI revenue will surpass its rocket and satellite sales by September, driven by training models on internal company data and employee interactions.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 65 long (decision 9956) for S4 TSLA exiting 2026-08-13] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ▲ long | 2 | 334.14 | 327.42 | -13.44 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA S1 | -0.81% | -3.13% | Signal (dominant factor): wrong. The trade never went positive — best unrealized was -0.81% — so the bullish call simply failed, and notably the rationale rests on a SpaceX (private company) revenue claim whose relevance to TSLA is dubious on its face. Timing: not the issue. The pre-entry move was tiny (+0.36% from prior close, +0.20% last 30m), so there's no evidence the move was already priced in; there was no bullish move at all. Exit: middling. The realized loss (~-2.0%, -$13.44) sits between the best (-0.81%) and worst (-3.13%) unrealized, so the exit neither cut losses near the minimum nor rode to the bottom — it captured roughly the midpoint of a losing trade. The data doesn't show whether an earlier exit was mechanically available under the strategy's rules. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.