🚨 Alert #2423 Wed Aug-12 13:50:19
Nebius disclosed AI compute pricing and highlighted significant infrastructure contracts with Microsoft and Meta, signaling strong demand for GPU capacity.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long MSFT (partnership: Nebius disclosed AI compute pricing and highlighted significant infrastructure contracts with Microsoft and Meta, signaling strong demand for GPU capacity.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close +1.37% |
| S4 | MSFT | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long MSFT at close, exit next close (partnership: Nebius disclosed AI compute pricing and highlighted significant infrastructure contracts with Microsoft and Meta, signaling strong demand for GPU capacity.) [skipped at close: stale at close-fill — wanted long, verdict now PRICED (-2.11% since close, 425m after decision), order not placed] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MSFT | ▲ long | 1 | 500.41 | 493.14 | -7.27 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSFT S1 | -0.20% | -1.76% | Signal (dominant factor): The bullish call was simply wrong — the position never went positive (best unrealized was -0.20%), so the predicted direction failed outright. Also worth noting the signal was second-hand: the news was about Nebius's contracts, with MSFT only as counterparty, and the data here can't confirm any bullish MSFT-specific catalyst existed. Timing: MSFT was already drifting down (-0.68% since prior close) at decision time, but there was no prior bullish move to have "missed" — this wasn't a late entry into a completed move, just an entry into weakness that continued. Exit: With a best of -0.20% and worst of -1.76%, there was essentially nothing available to capture; the -1.45% exit sits near the worst but the loss was driven by the bad signal, not exit execution. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.