🚨 Alert #238 Mon Jul-20 15:10:21
Iranian drone strikes caused devastating fire and power outages at Amazon data centers in the UAE and Bahrain, highlighting critical infrastructure security risks.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ● enter | ▼ short | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> sell AMZN (other: Iranian drone strikes caused devastating fire and power outages at Amazon data centers in the UAE and Bahrain, highlighting critical infrastructure security risks.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | - | ○ skip | — | no peer in universe |
| S4 | AMZN | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: sell AMZN at close, exit next close (other: Iranian drone strikes caused devastating fire and power outages at Amazon data centers in the UAE and Bahrain, highlighting critical infrastructure security risks.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMZN | ▼ short | 4 | 249.64 | 249.97 | -1.32 | closed |
| S4 | AMZN | ▼ short | 4 | 249.95 | 247.34 | +10.44 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AMZN S1 | +0.22% | -1.30% | The entry treated a sensational geopolitical headline as a materially bearish catalyst, but the market shrugged — AMZN barely moved, and a UAE/Bahrain data-center incident is a rounding error for AWS revenue, so "FRESH" said nothing about magnitude. Worse, the headline itself is dubious (unverified/possibly fabricated), meaning the rule fired on unconfirmed single-source news. Concrete fix: gate FRESH verdicts with a materiality filter — require the event to plausibly affect a meaningful share of the company's revenue or earnings (e.g., >1-2%) and demand corroboration from a second independent source before trading; otherwise downgrade to no-trade. |
| AMZN S4 | +5.84% | -0.41% | Entry vs. outcome: The rationale was a headline-driven short on a geopolitical shock, and directionally it worked — but you captured only ~1% (+$10.44) of a move that reached +5.84% unrealized. The thesis played out fast and mean-reverted, which is typical for scary-headline drift, and the rigid "exit next close" rule gave back ~80% of the available profit. Improvement: Replace the fixed next-close exit with a profit-taking trigger for event-driven entries — e.g., close the position if unrealized gain exceeds 3%, or trail a stop once past 2%. Alternatively, if you keep time-based exits, exit at next open for panic-news shorts, since the overreaction is usually largest overnight and fades intraday. One caution: with 4 shares, this result is noise — don't tune thresholds on single trades; batch these by rationale type before changing the rule. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.