Mon Aug-31 20:13:22
times in Europe/Lisbon
🚨 Alert #2321 Tue Aug-11 13:01:52
TSMC approves US$29.44 billion capital budget for expansion
TSMC's board approved a $29.44 billion capital budget for expansion and declared a Q2 cash dividend of NT$7.0 per share.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary TSM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.08% | -0.10% | 419.56 | 424.54 | |
| ASML | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +2.91% | +0.10% | 1778.70 | 1814.89 | |
| peer NVDA | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.12% | +0.05% | 216.49 | 221.79 | |
| QCOM | ▲ bullish | REPRICING | +1.02% | -0.21% | 161.72 | 164.58 | |
| AMD | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.76% | -0.16% | 463.93 | 475.78 | |
| AVGO | ▲ bullish | FRESH | +0.51% | +0.11% | 413.57 | 425.61 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long TSM (other: TSMC's board approved a $29.44 billion capital budget for expansion and declared a Q2 cash dividend of NT$7.0 per share.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred long: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -0.93% |
| S4 | TSM | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long TSM at close, exit next close (other: TSMC's board approved a $29.44 billion capital budget for expansion and declared a Q2 cash dividend of NT$7.0 per share.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 65 long lost to mat 85 long (decision 9304) for S4 TSM exiting 2026-08-12] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSM | ▲ long | 2 | 420.92 | 422.60 | +3.36 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSM S1 | +0.88% | -0.38% | Signal: right — price rose after entry and the trade closed green, consistent with the bullish repricing call. Timing: partly late — the stock was already +1.08% off prior close at decision time, and the remaining move while open was modest (max +0.88%). Exit: captured +0.40% (+$3.36) of a +0.88% best unrealized, so roughly half the available move was left on the table, though against a shallow -0.38% worst case. Dominant factor: exit efficiency — the signal worked, but the exit banked only about half of what was available; whether the pre-entry +1.08% was itself part of the news repricing can't be settled from this data. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.