🚨 Alert #2248 Mon Aug-10 16:00:28
Broadcom reported strong Q2 FY2026 earnings with AI semiconductor revenue up 143% and guided Q3 AI revenue to $16 billion, highlighting its strategic position in custom silicon and networking.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AVGO | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bullish -> long AVGO (earnings: Broadcom reported strong Q2 FY2026 earnings with AI semiconductor revenue up 143% and guided Q3 AI revenue to $16 billion, highlighting its strategic position in custom silicon and networking.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 long AVGO exiting 2026-08-10] → close -0.79% |
| S2 | GOOGL | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for GOOGL → close +0.81% |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict REPRICING, direction bearish -> short NVDA (earnings: Broadcom reported strong Q2 FY2026 earnings with AI semiconductor revenue up 143% and guided Q3 AI revenue to $16 billion, highlighting its strategic position in custom silicon and networking.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already holding S1 short NVDA exiting 2026-08-10] → close -0.91% |
| S4 | AVGO | ● enter | ▲ long | overnight drift: long AVGO at close, exit next close (earnings: Broadcom reported strong Q2 FY2026 earnings with AI semiconductor revenue up 143% and guided Q3 AI revenue to $16 billion, highlighting its strategic position in custom silicon and networking.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | AVGO | ▲ long | 2 | 422.47 | 416.26 | -12.42 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| AVGO S4 | +1.00% | -2.17% | Signal: Wrong. The rationale predicted upward overnight drift on strong earnings, but the stock fell ~1.5% from entry (422.47 → 416.26). Note the fill was already ~1.2% below the prior close of 427.76, and the -0.45%/-1.09% pre-entry drift suggests selling pressure at decision time — though whether the earnings pop had already been fully priced in before entry can't be settled from this data alone. Exit: The mechanical next-close exit gave back what was available: the position saw +1.00% unrealized at its best but closed at roughly -1.5%, near the -2.17% worst. The exit rule captured the bad tail, not the good one. Dominant factor: Wrong directional signal — the post-earnings drift went the opposite way, and no exit rule would have salvaged more than the brief +1% spike. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.