🚨 Alert #2132 Fri Aug-07 13:03:44
Tesla and SpaceX have committed an initial $16.8 billion to construct Terafab, a massive vertically integrated semiconductor manufacturing facility in Texas designed to produce advanced logic and memory chips for their own hardware.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ● enter | ▲ long | verdict FRESH, direction bullish -> long TSLA (product: Tesla and SpaceX have committed an initial $16.8 billion to construct Terafab, a massive vertically integrated semiconductor manufacturing facility in Texas designed to produce advanced logic and memory chips for their own hardware.) |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short NVDA (product: Tesla and SpaceX have committed an initial $16.8 billion to construct Terafab, a massive vertically integrated semiconductor manufacturing facility in Texas designed to produce advanced logic and memory chips for their own hardware.) [skipped: duplicate theme — already queued S1 short NVDA exiting 2026-08-07] → close +1.81% |
| S4 | TSLA | ○ skip | — | overnight drift: long TSLA at close, exit next close (product: Tesla and SpaceX have committed an initial $16.8 billion to construct Terafab, a massive vertically integrated semiconductor manufacturing facility in Texas designed to produce advanced logic and memory chips for their own hardware.) [skipped at close: outranked — mat 85 long lost to mat 85 long (decision 8612) for S4 TSLA exiting 2026-08-10] |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | TSLA | ▲ long | 3 | 323.36 | 328.18 | +14.46 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| TSLA S1 | +3.14% | -0.47% | Signal: Correct — the bullish call played out; the trade closed +1.49% with minimal adverse excursion (worst -0.47%). Timing: Some of the move had already occurred — the stock was +0.57% from prior close at decision time, and the fill at 323.36 was ~1.2% above prev close, so entry gave up a chunk of the early move. Whether the news itself was already priced in beyond that can't be settled from this data. Exit (dominant factor): The exit captured roughly half of what was available — +1.49% realized vs. a peak unrealized of +3.14%. The signal worked; the exit left about 1.6 percentage points (~$16) on the table, making exit capture the weakest link on an otherwise clean trade. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.