🚨 Alert #2098 Thu Aug-06 18:11:02
Sandisk's disappointing outlook triggered a sector-wide sell-off in memory and storage stocks, causing Micron Technology shares to fall approximately 4% despite Sandisk beating estimates.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | MU | ○ skip | — | verdict FRESH, direction bearish -> short MU (earnings: Sandisk's disappointing outlook triggered a sector-wide sell-off in memory and storage stocks, causing Micron Technology shares to fall approximately 4% despite Sandisk beating estimates.) [skipped: signal conflict — wanted short, conflict-hold — mat 65 ties incumbent S1 long MU, incumbent held (strictly higher materiality required to flip)] → close -1.37% |
| S2 | - | ○ skip | — | no counterparty in universe |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | inferred short: materiality 65 below floor 75 → close -0.18% |
| S4 | MU | ● enter | ▼ short | overnight drift: short MU at close, exit next close (earnings: Sandisk's disappointing outlook triggered a sector-wide sell-off in memory and storage stocks, causing Micron Technology shares to fall approximately 4% despite Sandisk beating estimates.) |
📈 Trades
| strategy | ticker | side | qty | entry | exit | P&L $ | status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S4 | MU | ▼ short | 1 | 882.47 | 875.66 | +6.81 | closed |
Retrospectives
| ticker | mfe | mae | reflection |
|---|---|---|---|
| MU S4 | +3.66% | -3.80% | Signal: Correct — the short direction paid off; MU fell from 882.47 to 875.66 (+6.81, ~0.77%). Timing: Partly missed. Price context at decision showed MU roughly flat (+0.28% vs prev close of 892.49), but the fill came in at 882.47 — about 1.1% below the prior close — so a meaningful chunk of the anticipated sell-off occurred between decision and fill. The data here doesn't show whether that gap was execution lag or an overnight gap, so exactly how much of the move was forgone can't be settled. Exit: The dominant issue. The trade saw +3.66% unrealized (roughly +32 on this position) but the fixed next-close exit banked only ~0.77% — about a fifth of the best available — while also riding through a -3.80% adverse swing. Right call, sloppy entry basis, and an exit that captured a small fraction of what the move offered. |
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.