Mon Aug-31 19:07:47
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🚨 Alert #1805 Tue Aug-04 16:10:10
AMD Earnings Prediction Market Preview: What Will Lisa Su Say? - Advanced Micro Devices (NASDAQ:AMD)
Advanced Micro Devices is scheduled to report its second-quarter earnings after the bell, with prediction markets indicating high probabilities of specific mentions regarding HBM memory, Helios infrastructure, and new chip architectures.
🎯 Tickers & verdicts
| ticker | direction | verdict | since close | 30m | day lo | day hi | intraday px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| primary AMD | · unclear | PRICED | +6.94% | +0.24% | 469.87 | 529.54 | |
| MU | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +6.87% | +0.92% | 861.76 | 900.43 | |
| QCOM | · unclear | PRICED | +6.08% | +0.59% | 154.48 | 163.44 | |
| AVGO | · unclear | PRICED | +4.77% | +0.32% | 398.53 | 421.83 | |
| TSM | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +2.78% | +0.50% | 412.52 | 419.81 | |
| MSFT | ▲ bullish | PRICED | +1.85% | -0.10% | 475.61 | 498.91 | |
| peer NVDA | ▼ bearish | PRICED | +1.51% | -0.26% | 208.89 | 216.89 | |
| counterparty META | ▲ bullish | PRICED | -1.36% | -0.06% | 575.50 | 592.28 |
🧭 Decisions
| strategy | ticker | action | side | rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S1 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD → close +0.93% |
| S2 | META | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close -1.36% · Δ 30m -0.06% · px 582.23 (prev 590.24) → close +1.05% |
| S3 | NVDA | ○ skip | — | verdict PRICED — Δ prev close +1.51% · Δ 30m -0.26% · px 209.76 (prev 206.64) → close +1.18% |
| S4 | AMD | ○ skip | — | direction unclear for AMD |
📈 Trades
no trades spawned
📖 Glossary
- S1 primary — trades the alert's primary ticker in the direction the article itself indicates; exits at the same day's close.
- S2 counterparty — trades the inferred counterparty ticker (weakest signal, LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S3 peer — trades an inferred peer ticker (also LLM-inferred sympathy); exits at the same day's close.
- S4 overnight — holds the primary ticker from today's close to the NEXT day's close.
- Verdicts are decided top-to-bottom, first match wins; REPRICING is also the fallback when nothing else matches (2026-08-08 #220).
- UNKNOWN — a needed price input (move since close or move in the last 30m) is missing.
- PRICED — |move since previous close| ≥ 2.0%: already reflected in price.
- REPRICING — |move in the last 30m| ≥ 0.5%: the tape is actively moving on it. Also covers a quieter move — |move since previous close| in [1.0, 2.0) with a quiet last-30m tape: still developing, not yet priced.
- FRESH — |move since previous close| < 1.0%: a genuinely new move.
- materiality — how market-moving the story was judged, 0-100 — alerts require materiality ≥ 60.